Are Things in Iraq Better? One-Third of Americans Think So

ROCHESTER, N.Y. – September 3, 2008 ― As President Bush enters his last few months in the White House, attitudes on his handling of Iraq have continued to hold steady, according to a new Harris Poll of 2,710 adults surveyed online between August 11 and 17, 2008 by Harris Interactive^®. The Poll found that:

• Three in ten (29%) U.S. adults have a positive opinion of how President Bush is handling Iraq while two-thirds (66%) have a negative opinion. In May, just over one-quarter (27%) gave President Bush a positive rating on Iraq while 70 percent gave him a negative rating;
• One-third (32%) of Americans believe the situation in Iraq is getting better, two in five (41%) say things are staying the same and 16 percent say things are getting worse. This is better than in May when only one in five (22%) said things were getting better; and,
• Half of Americans (49%) say taking military action in Iraq was the wrong thing to do and one-third (33%) say it was the right thing to do. In October 2007, just under half (46%) said it was the wrong thing while 37 percent believed it was the right thing to do.

 Iraq and the Presidential Election

Regardless of who wins the presidential election in November, one of the issues they will be confronted with is Iraq and how they handle it will be seen as a first big test of the new McCain or Obama administration. Already there are some ideas of how both major candidates will handle Iraq:

• Just over two in five Americans (42%) say John McCain will do a excellent or pretty good job regarding Iraq if he was elected president, and just under two in five (39%) say Barack Obama would do an excellent or pretty good job if elected. In March, half of Americans (50%) believed John McCain would do an excellent or pretty god job on Iraq while just over one-third (36%) sais the same about Barack Obama; and,
• Three-quarters of Republicans (73%) say John McCain would do an excellent or pretty good job while just three in five Democrats (62%) say Barack Obama would do an excellent or pretty good job on Iraq. Looking at the ever-important Independents, just over two in five (44%) say John McCain would do an excellent or pretty good job and just under two in five (37%) Independents say the same thing about Barack Obama.

According to Regina A. Corso, the Director of The Harris Poll, "Americans think that the situation in Iraq is getting better, but the majority still feels that getting involved in the first place was the wrong thing to do. Knowing this, the incoming president will have to positively influence the situation in Iraq as soon as he takes office in January."

"Americans gave John McCain a large advantage over Barack Obama on the issue in March, but now seem to view each candidate as having the potential to do a better job on the issue than President Bush. Regardless, the president-elect will likely get a honeymoon in which to deal with Iraq, but given Americans’ lengthy widespread pessimism on how things are going there, that honeymoon will definitely be brief. Then the public will expect the new Administration to quickly make changes."

"Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the issue of Iraq over the last several months?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Do you think that the situation in Iraq is…?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding

"How good a job do you think each of the following candidates would do regarding Iraq if they were elected president?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

"How good a job do you think each of the following candidates would do regarding Iraq if they were elected president?"

Base: All Adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

This Harris Poll^® was conducted online within the United States between August 11 and 17, 2008 among 2,710 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

 All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

 Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

 These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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